000
FXUS61 KALY 151326
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
926 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND SWEEP
THROUGH OF ALL OUR REGION BY NOON. IT WILL ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY FALL
FOR AWHILE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TONIGHT AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT...A STRONG SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS JUST
SLIPPED SOUTH OF ALBANY. TEMPERATURES WENT FROM 72 SHORTLY BEFORE
800 AM TO 64 AFTER 900 AM WITH A GUSTY WIND OVER 20 MPH. ONE
THING MISSING WITH THIS COLD FRONT IS ANY REAL CONVECTION.
MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. AN IMPRESSIVE CUT OFF LOW WAS SINKING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WITH AN IMPRESSIVE MCS BRINGING EPIC RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH JERSEY. THIS FEATURE HAS OBVIOUSLY "ROBBED"
MOISTURE FROM THE COLD FRONT.
FOR THIS UPDATE...LOTS OF CHANGES. HAD TO REDO THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO CATCH THE BIG TEMPERATURE DROP.
ALSO...LOWERED SOME TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...AT
LEAST ONE CATEGORY.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHERLY WIND WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S TODAY AND EVEN INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY THIS EVENING. ALSO CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTH BREEZE WILL
KEEP A COOL FEEL TO THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM A COOL MID 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MID 70S LOCALLY IN GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND
SURROUNDING AREAS...TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH
ITS PASSAGE THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE REPLACED BY A MUCH
DRIER ONE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WERE
HIGH AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SO ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALSO FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA REMAINS WEAK SO THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHERLY WIND WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S TODAY AND EVEN INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY THIS EVENING. ALSO CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM A COOL MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
CANADA. EXPECTING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
WHILE ALOFT THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT THURSDAY WITH
LOWS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY'S NIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S. EXPECTING
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A SHORT WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND ANY ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION WON/T SEE A LONG DURATION WASHOUT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
SITUATED CLOSE TO THE REGION AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES COULD ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR NORTHERN AREAS...PRIMARILY
DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STILL TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON JUST HOW STRONG ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD BE...AS THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT
THANKS TO SURFACE HEATING...ALTHOUGH 0-6 BULK SHEAR AMOUNTS LOOK
TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED. TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THESE
DAYS...ESP FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...THANKS TO A NEARBY
STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY AROUND
5.5 TO 6 DEGREES C/KM AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES MAINLY 25 KTS OR
LESS...IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR ANY STORMS TO GET VERY STRONG ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL
BE WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. IT WILL BE MUGGY AS WELL...WITH DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO THE 60S AS WELL.
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
CROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
BEST CHANCE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WITH THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS 12Z...A STRONG COLD FRONT JUST CROSSED KALB. THE WINDS HAVE
INCREASED OUT OF THE NORTH. CIGS WERE LOW MVFR...AND OCCASIONALLY
WILL DIP TO IFR THROUGH 14Z. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KPOU FOR
SEVERAL FOR MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING.
THE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED TO THE N-NW AT KGFL AND WILL DO SO
AT KPOU KPSF.
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU. BY AFTERNOON ALL THE TAFS WILL BE VFR
WITH SCT CU BASES AROUND 3500 FEET. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE BUT PROBABLY NOT AS GUSTY.
THE SKY WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE NORTH WIND DIMINISHING.
A LINGERING BREEZE AND DECREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH SINCE IT COULD DEVELOP DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS. FOR NOW...DID ADD MVFR FOG TO THE KGFL TAF ONLY AND MIFG
(SHALLOW) WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO THE REMAINING TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH
ITS PASSAGE THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE REPLACED BY A MUCH
DRIER ONE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE
HIGH AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SO ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALSO FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA REMAINS WEAK SO THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
OUR RADAR /KENX/ IS OUT OF SERVICE WITH PARTS ON EMERGENCY ORDER.
THE RADAR IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN AT LEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 9:26AM EDT