AP-NJ--PHL-NJ 1st Area Forecast Discussion, NJ
000
FXUS61 KPHI 151440
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1040 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. IN ITS WAKE, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND AND SLOWLY MOVES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
NJ...W/ LOCALIZED AMOUNTS SINCE THIS MORNING ALREADY APPROACHING
3 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND 24-HOUR AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS. FLASH FLOODING HAS OCCURED IN THESE LOCATIONS...SEE
OUR LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR MORE DETAILS. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
NJ...WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WILL
RESIDE.
NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED
A MARGINAL RIRK ACROSS THE CWA. THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NJ...WHERE SURFACE FORCING WILL BE CO-
LOCATED WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SVR WEATHER /DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/...
BUT THE THREAT IS LOW...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN BEING FLASH
FLOODING.
UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MID LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, COULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THUS TEMPERED THE LOWS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY WHERE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER. THINK THIS
CLOUD COVER, AND WINDS AROUND 10 KT, SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THUS...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FOG
FROM THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM TO FOCUS ON CURRENT
CONVECTION.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
HAZARDS: POTENTIAL METRO I-95 HEAT ADVISORY ONE OR TWO OF THE
DAYS BETWEEN SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
500MB: WARM RIDGING DEVELOPS THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT WEAKNESS
OVER THE NE USA. A TROUGH EVENTUALLY DIGS DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AROUND NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF JULY THROUGH THE 13TH IS BASICALLY
NEAR NORMAL AND THE OUTLOOK IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE 3
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING
TO 5 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/14 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT, 12Z/14 MEX MOS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 1521Z/14 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS
OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
THURSDAY...PWAT DRIES OUT FURTHER TO 0.75 INCH. A NICE
DAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COOLER. NE WIND GUST 20 MPH DURING THE
MORNING. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
FRIDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH A LIGHT S-SE WIND. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE.
HEAT WAVE MAY BEGIN IN PLACES ALONG I-95 SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY. CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS COULD BREAK THIS UP ANY
ONE OF THESE DAYS BUT OVERALL THIS 4 DAY PERIOD LOOKS HOT AND
HUMID WITH SOME CONVECTIVE POTENCY IN A RING OF FIRE PATTERN ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STATES RIDGE ALOFT. BETTER INSTABILITY
TENDS TO BE BANKED UPSTREAM MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EML IS DIFFUSED
BY CONVECTION AS IT DEPARTS THE GREAT LAKES ESEWD BUT STILL WORTH
FOLLOWING FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT HERE. ALSO NOTICING
CAPPING 700MB TEMPS OF 11C TRYING TO HEAD EAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
SATURDAY...1000J+ MLCAPE MODELED E PA WITH 25-35 KT 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR, A DIFFERENTIAL WAA PATTERN IN OVERALL NW FLOW WITH A SW
SURFACE WIND GUSTING 15 MPH MAY YIELD SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS I-95
WESTWARD IN A NW FLOW. NOTING DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES OF NEARLY
7C/KM WITH REMNANT EML POCKETS SIFTING SEWD INTO OUR AREA.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
SUNDAY...2200J+ ML CAPE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR TO SPEAK OF. LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC WIND WITH GENERAL NW FLOW
ALOFT. MID LVL INSTABILITY CONTINUES SIGNIFICANT. COULD BE ONE OF
THOSE BIG CAPE DAYS DRIVING SVR WX PRODUCTION. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.
MONDAY...1500+J ML CAPE MOST OF THE AREA. DIFFERENTIAL WAA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR UNDER 25 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...PROBABLY STILL HOT AND HUMID AHEAD OF WHATEVER TROUGH
DEVELOPS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CFP COULD GENERATE STRONG
TSTMS? CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHRA OR TSRA. IT LOOKS LIKE KMIV AND
KACY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF MVFR/IFR.
AFTER 00Z, EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, EXPECT A STRATUS
DECK TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT CURRENT TIME
HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF MODELS DEPICT THIS CLOUD DECK TO BE 4000 TO 6000
FT AGL. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR WITH A NNE WIND GUSTY 15-20 KT THU MORNING
DIMINISHING BY THU EVENING AND THEN BECOMING S OR SE FRIDAY BUT
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVG.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR, BUT MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHRA OR TSRA AND ALSO POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS SAT NIGHT IN FOG.
CONFIDENCE: AVG.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ON THE ATLANTIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY, AND SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY BY TONIGHT. THUS THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE ATLC CW WHERE NE GUSTY WINDS 25 KT
FOR A TIME AND FETCH DEVELOPS HAZARDOUS SCA CONDITIONS FM N TO S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LEFTOVER 4 FT NE SWELL WITH A 7 TO 8
SECOND PERIOD AND POSSIBLY LINGERING SCA FOR THE DE WATERS THU
NIGHT. OTRW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.
WEEKEND...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE NEW MOON TOMORROW, EXPECT TO SEE A COUPLE OF ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. FIRST, WITH LIMITED ON SHORE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATER TODAY SHOULD BE JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST
BY EARLY THURSDAY RESULTING IN A STRONGER ON SHORE COMPONENT. AS
SUCH, THE HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MAY
BE RIGHT AT MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR THE DE WATERS. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WINDS, AND THUS THE TIDE
GUIDANCE, SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WATER TEMPS CONTINUE ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY...LOW RISK AGAIN WITH A 4 FT 8 SECOND SWELL BUT A LIGHT
WEST TO NORTH WIND THAT PERMITS HEATING TO THE COAST BEFORE AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SCT HEAVY TSTMS...SLOW MOVERS AND
TENDING TO MOVE ESE.
THU...DRY AND NICE. 5 FT 6 SECOND NE SWELL WITH A NNE WIND 10-20
MPH. ENHANCED LOW RISK, POSSIBLE MDT RISK.
FRI...DRY AND VERY NICE. SE ONSHORE WIND 10 MPH. 4 FT 7 SECOND.
STILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW RISK DUE TO THE RESIDUAL NE SWELL.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KILG WILL NOT BE TRANSMITTING DATA 13Z-16Z/15 FOR TELCO
MAINTENANCE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ454-455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
EQUIPMENT...
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 10:41AM EDT